New Zealand Tourism Outlook 2026-2027: What Official Data Tells Us About the Next 12 Months

by | Jan 30, 2026 | Awareness, Development, Domestic Tourists, Economy, Environment, International Tourists, Marketing, New Zealand​, News, Planning, Policy, Research, Resilience, Sustainability, Tourism, Tourism Data Overview, Tourist Behaviour

New Zealand Tourism Outlook 2026-2027: What Official Data Tells Us About the Next 12 Months

Introduction

Tourism is once again a central pillar of New Zealand’s economy, but the nature of its recovery has been more measured than many early post-pandemic forecasts suggested. While international borders have long reopened, the data shows a sector that is stabilising rather than surging.

Using official datasets collated by Tourism New Zealand, Stats NZ and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), this article takes a deep dive into the most recent tourism data and sets out a realistic forecast for the next 12 months. The aim is not to predict headline growth, but to understand what the numbers genuinely imply for operators, regions and policymakers.

Data Sources:

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/tourism-data

https://teic.mbie.govt.nz/teiccategories/datareleases/ivs

Where New Zealand Tourism Stands Today

International Visitor Arrivals: Recovery, Not Rebound

International Visitor Arrivals (IVA) data from Stats NZ shows that New Zealand welcomed approximately 3.3 to 3.4 million international visitors in the year to mid-2025. This represents a steady year-on-year increase of around 5 percent, but still sits at roughly 85 to 88 percent of 2019 levels.

The pattern of recovery is important. Monthly arrivals data indicates that seasonality has largely returned, with strong summer peaks and quieter shoulder seasons. What has not returned is the rapid growth seen immediately after borders reopened. Instead, growth has moderated, suggesting the industry has moved from a catch-up phase into a period of structural recovery.

This matters because it signals predictability. While slower than hoped by some, this trend allows for more stable planning around infrastructure, workforce and regional capacity.
Sources:
https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/international-visitor-arrivals
https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/tourism-data/

Visitor Spend Is Outpacing Visitor Numbers

While arrival numbers remain below their pre-pandemic peak, international visitor spend has recovered more strongly. According to MBIE’s International Visitor Survey, international visitors spent NZ$12.1 billion in the year ending June 2025, an increase of over 4 percent on the previous year.

The key insight here is that spend is growing faster than volume. This reflects a combination of longer average stays, higher accommodation costs, and a visitor mix that increasingly includes higher-spending long-haul travellers, particularly from North America.

However, inflation complicates the picture. Nominal spend growth does not always translate into stronger margins for tourism businesses facing rising labour, energy and insurance costs. The data therefore points to moderate real growth, not a windfall.


Sources:
https://teic.mbie.govt.nz/teiccategories/resources/2025/06/03/international-visitor-survey-mailout/
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/immigration-and-tourism/tourism-research-and-data/

Accommodation Data Signals Capacity Pressures, Not Shortages

The Accommodation Data Programme (ADP) provides a useful lens on how demand is translating into pressure on the ground. Occupancy rates across hotels, motels and holiday parks have continued to improve, particularly during peak seasons. In several high-demand regions, summer occupancy is now close to pre-COVID levels.

What stands out, however, is the uneven nature of demand. Shoulder and off-season occupancy remains patchy, especially in regions heavily reliant on international markets. This suggests that capacity constraints are localised rather than national, and that workforce availability is likely to be a more binding constraint than physical accommodation stock over the next year.
Sources:
https://teic.mbie.govt.nz/teiccategories/datareleases/adp/
https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/tourism-data/

How Tourism Demand Is Changing

Shifts in Source Markets

Australia continues to dominate as New Zealand’s largest source market, providing a stable base for recovery. At the same time, visitor growth from the United States has been particularly strong, contributing disproportionately to total visitor spend.

In contrast, recovery from some Asian markets has been slower and more uneven. This reflects broader global economic conditions, aviation capacity constraints and changing travel behaviour. As a result, the composition of demand over the next year is likely to remain skewed towards higher-spending, longer-stay visitors, rather than a return to high-volume growth.


Sources:
https://teic.mbie.govt.nz/teiccategories/resources/2025/09/02/international-visitor-survey-mailout/
https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/tourism-data/

Policy and Cost Signals

Policy settings also matter. The increase in the International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy has raised concerns within the industry. While the levy remains a small share of total trip costs, evidence suggests travellers respond to cumulative price signals rather than single charges.

At the margins, higher costs may affect price-sensitive travellers, particularly those considering shorter stays. Over the next year, this is more likely to influence who travels rather than whether people travel at all.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/new-zealand-nearly-triples-levy-international-tourists-2024-09-03/

Forecast for the Next 12 Months

International Visitor Arrivals

Based on the last four quarters of IVA data and current growth trajectories, a 6 to 10 percent increase in international arrivals over the next year is a realistic forecast.

This would place total arrivals in the range of 3.6 to 3.75 million visitors. While still short of the 2019 peak of approximately 3.9 million, this would represent a meaningful narrowing of the gap and position the sector for a full return to pre-pandemic levels by late 2026 or early 2027.

Importantly, the data does not support expectations of a sudden surge. Growth is likely to remain steady and incremental.
Sources:
https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/international-visitor-arrivals
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/international-tourism-numbers-continue-rise

International Visitor Spend

Visitor spend is expected to continue growing faster than visitor numbers. Based on recent IVS trends, a 7 to 12 percent increase in total international visitor expenditure over the next 12 months is plausible.

This would see annual spend approach or exceed NZ$13 billion, driven primarily by higher per-visitor spend rather than volume growth. While this strengthens the sector’s economic contribution, rising operating costs mean the benefits will not be evenly felt across all parts of the industry.
Sources:
https://teic.mbie.govt.nz/teiccategories/resources/2025/06/03/international-visitor-survey-mailout/

Risks and Uncertainties

Several factors could push outcomes towards the lower or upper end of this forecast range. A global economic slowdown, higher airfares or further policy changes could dampen demand. Conversely, improved flight connectivity or faster-than-expected recovery in Asian markets could lift arrivals beyond current expectations.

Overall, the data supports a measured and cautious outlook, rather than one of rapid expansion.

What This Means for the Tourism Industry

The next year is likely to be defined by consolidation rather than acceleration. Growth will continue, but at a pace that rewards careful planning rather than volume-driven strategies.

For operators, the opportunity lies in improving productivity, targeting higher-value segments and managing seasonal demand more effectively. For policymakers and planners, the challenge is to support growth while managing infrastructure, workforce and environmental pressures in high-demand destinations.

The value of the datasets provided by Tourism New Zealand, MBIE and Stats NZ is that they allow these decisions to be made on evidence rather than assumption. Used well, they point towards a tourism sector that is smaller than at its peak, but potentially more resilient, more valuable and better aligned with long-term national priorities.

Sources:

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/insights/tourism-data/
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/immigration-and-tourism/tourism-research-and-data

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